Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 55094.018134 58381.820614 61677.174102 65225.250204 68934.786763 72695.968037 76795.138679
2024-10-06 50332.369322 55390.122295 60609.420484 66389.273350 72601.949674 79070.472572 86305.834143
2024-10-13 46620.364875 52866.989949 59462.921858 66928.905428 75126.760031 83835.939658 93769.516142
2024-10-20 43443.139241 50535.480344 58171.183750 66973.777495 76811.276295 87436.534758 99749.340638
2024-10-27 40682.292590 48407.943801 56869.480824 66781.954194 78031.018885 90355.305759 104832.262194
2024-11-03 39096.612024 47455.193986 56748.310942 67787.573693 80481.864318 94560.050399 111289.170253
2024-11-10 37588.277407 46473.480577 56489.959230 68541.476586 82567.599145 98295.545121 117180.413775
2024-11-17 36038.836122 45344.022209 55972.254506 68914.148951 84146.726856 101403.507043 122324.011227
2024-11-24 34446.274576 44075.593539 55212.978851 68930.753315 85249.303316 103915.812357 126750.067783
2024-12-01 33166.972017 43115.263738 54757.707705 69251.062650 86663.128512 106758.703945 131545.209196
2024-12-08 31856.596814 42054.410241 54125.844059 69308.454161 87722.142721 109155.415864 135800.776775
2024-12-15 31133.982395 41678.559257 54289.948935 70299.018823 89880.425620 112846.612351 141597.992818
2024-12-22 29907.396371 40641.461975 53622.085689 70262.947657 90800.986741 115083.044327 145706.198565
2024-12-29 29323.065459 40389.436734 53905.368635 71385.701331 93133.154811 119028.447794 151898.990839
2025-01-05 28507.148125 39806.389193 53745.673944 71933.733634 94743.611883 122097.036351 157043.342832
2025-01-12 27510.390488 38950.693515 53207.561007 71976.251072 95703.827552 124359.539254 161205.380983
2025-01-19 26463.074937 37990.044179 52500.401305 71771.989329 96328.926338 126193.039927 164834.981275
2025-01-26 26033.272672 37824.870459 52798.430276 72836.977027 98545.369554 129996.265247 170910.417941
2025-02-02 25515.420047 37520.789266 52899.101490 73635.387996 100418.605292 133377.306515 176480.098363
2025-02-09 24857.561488 37003.947536 52701.185736 74030.038064 101766.305063 136099.870199 181239.247550
2025-02-16 24080.051270 36297.869405 52230.399464 74047.619397 102614.372222 138186.926708 185204.956746
2025-02-23 23468.671179 35799.141083 52016.446205 74386.806271 103867.429383 140783.180657 189820.039134
2025-03-02 22778.522272 35168.487231 51605.676466 74447.578270 104745.687607 142897.848420 193830.102806